If last year
was the year of the quarterback in the Pac12, this year is the year of who’s
the quarterback. Even the teams with returning QB’s aren’t bragging about it,
at least until last call at the local bar. With Sarkisian gone, they aren’t
even doing it there.
When you get
right down to it, the best experienced quarterback in the conference is, wait
for it – I told you I have a green and yellow bias and I promised you humor –,
in Eugene where grad transfer Dakota Prukop was an all-American at the FCS
level playing the same type of offense and has been on campus since spring
practice. Arizona should step up and argue that with me and Washington fans
would if they read this thing. Anu
Solomon has grown up from a flashy freshman to become a journeyman signal
caller, but journeyman does not equate with stellar anywhere it is used. “Jake
Browning”, “Jake Browning” I hear echoing from up north. Well, Jake was surprisingly
good for a freshman (see Anu Solomon, two years ago model) which made him a serviceable
quarterback with a lot to prove his second season. The only decent team UW beat
last year was USC while the Trojans were still a bit of a hot mess. They did
that by two points in a low scoring game.
If the Quarterback
is not a dead cinch to carry you, the running backs have to. There are really
only two who have the ability to do that. Some guy named McCaffery in Palo Alto
and Royce Freeman for Oregon can tote the ball for 100 yards or more most
games, against anybody. Miles Gaskin for UW has the potential to join the club
if Browning proves to be a good passer. Otherwise, if he is expected to run, he’ll
have a tough time getting to that level.
At this
point you may have noticed I haven’t high-lighted any southern division schools.
USC should stand out from the group. They have had grade A recruiting classes
for more years than I have fingers and the only place I am a butcher is in this
blog. They have for quite a while produced grade B and C teams. Troy’s diary
has a lot of blank pages, at least as far at football games go. They have a
coach who should last the season now and will likely start building a machine
again, but not this year.
Everybody
gets around to talking about wide receivers and tight ends, except me. Those guys
break plays, look exciting, and sometimes make a difference in the game, but
everybody except Utah has a stable full of them. They are replaceable because,
let’s face it most of them are bigger than the defenders, run routes they and
the quarterback know are coming, and are fast. Decent ones are good for seven
or eight yards per play while better ones make downfield blocks and
occasionally break free for long gains. Everybody has lots of those except
Utah.
Defense, we
are told, wins games. In the Pac12 nobody has one except Utah. Cal relied on
one until last year but lost the recipe as well as lot more games than a team
with the number 1 NFL draft pick should have. Stanford simulates one largely
because they play efficient old fashioned smash-mouth offense and gives their
defense more time on the sideline. Oregon State used to try that but, for a
while now, have failed to consistently put an offense of any kind on the turf. The
Utes can actually hold teams down so their anemic offense can produce enough
points to win some games. Otherwise I could drop my opening sentence in this
paragraph regarding the conference.
The greatest
enemy of any defense, on either side of the ball, is an offense that runs a
play every 20 seconds or so, maybe less. A lot of the conference teams do that
because it wears out the opposing defense as the game moves along. Post Chip
Kelly, there are a lot of enemies in the offenses out here, some made more
dangerous to their own counterparts by the dreaded three and out. With only a
minute or two the D has to come back out and ply their trade before they get
much time to recuperate. Ask Oregon about the two halves of their bowl game
last year.
I like
kickers in football as much as I do in soccer so I won’t talk about them except
to say, if they become important, several other things need fixing.
It’s always
too early to predict the final standings given the injuries and surprise breakout
players. Still, us pundits whether anointed or self-proclaimed, have to step up
and let loose sooner or later. Here’s my shot.
North
Oregon Prukop looks like the real thing and is still being pushed
for the job, meaning all of the duck eggs are not in one basket. I’m betting
Brady Hoke improves the defense.
Stanford It will be largely the McCaffery show but he is a hell of
an actor. They play Oregon in Eugene which could make the difference but the
Indians are not unfamiliar with pulling upsets there.
Washington/Washington State Whoever wins the Apple Bowls finishes
third. Washington’s bandwagon has to travel to Palo Alto and Eugene where it
will empty out some each time.
California Because the other northern team is Oregon State
Oregon State Because they have to finish somewhere.
South
USC Sooner
or later all that talent has to do something right.
UCLA Almost
against my better judgment, but they had a couple pretty recruiting years.
Arizona/Utah Which ever one can find an offense, or even
simulate one, first. I lean toward the Utes
Arizona State Because the other Southern team is Colorado
Colorado Because they have to finish somewhere.
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