Opening
shots are, depending upon the level of planning, to see where the damned shell
lands or to hit close to the target with adjustment to come. I used to do that professionally.
This opening salvo is a confusing mix of both, pretty much what you can expect
for the first several weeks because I am not going go ACD on getting to know
teams outside the conference on purpose. Kind of like the way my wife sees my
house cleaning expertise. I’m retired but still don’t have enough time to get
that involved in either endeavor and am in no way fearful I’ll lose my job here
on the blog.
My first
test comes on August 28 when California hosts Hawaii in Australia. Now that’s
the way to host a party; in someone else’s house so nothing important gets
broken. As near as I can figure Cal’s defensive philosophy is to hope the other
team self-destructs before they score on a drive. On the other side of the ball
they hope things aren’t as bad a losing somewhere around 80% of the players who
produced on offense last season. In both cases, hope is going to be answered
positively in this game. I’m not betting that will hold true for the rest of
the season. Hawaii comes in not much better off. Their Offensive Coordinator
was the Coach’s center when he played at Hawaii. My gut feeling is Cal winning
the game by a touchdown or two.
Southern
Utah plays a Thursday night game in Utah. Considering the difference in play
level of the two schools this is an easy shoot from the hip trick, at least as
far as predicting a win for Utah. The Utes should be able to pitch a shut-out
and even their probably anemic offense should score at least three touchdowns.
Their defense alone could easily outscore Southern Utah in a game they should
win by at least 28 points.
When Oregon
State opens the same night in Minnesota they have several things going for
them. First is if they lose, only a few of their cow country fans probably have
access to the Big10 network, the only place to watch the game. Second is they
are playing the Gophers. Farmers know how to handle those. Both teams are in
about the same shape. Maybe Minnesota has a QB who can continue to remain a strong
mediocre one while we don’t know OSU has. Ryan Nall will run the ball for the
Beavs against a bend-but-don’t-break defense and the last time he did so he
gained a lot of yards against Oregon. Neither head coach has proven capable of
establishing a great recruiting record in their early years at their respective
schools so a team making radical improvement won’t emerge. Only because of my
anti-east-coast bias will I predict a touchdown or so advantage for Oregon
State. That and the Big 10ish tradition
of losing early season games to mediocre teams.
It took more
time to find my football magazines (see opening paragraph remark about my
housekeeping skill) than to predict a Friday night win by Stanford over Kansas
State. Even remembering the Indians’ opening game loss last year to an inferior
team I’m sticking to that. That fiasco should serve as a wake-up for this year.
KSU predicted to finish 8th in the 9 team Big 12 is on the road vs a
strong contender in the Pac12 north. Wildcat fans are probably happy this is not
a home game.
Meanwhile in
Colorado it’s a tussle between the Rams and the Buffalo. Common sense says most
Pac12 teams should beat most Mountain West teams. The key word here is “most”.
CSU has proven a tough opponent almost every year Colorado has been a member of
the conference. The last three years CU has watched other teams play bowl games
while the Rams have played in them, and probably will again this year while the
Buffs probably won’t. Colorado State has a great chance, and will probably
capitalize on it, to give their instate rivals a loss by a touchdown or so.
Rutgers
plays UW on the first Saturday. While I don’t see Washington as good a team as
most prognosticators do, I don’t see the Scarlet Knights as good as the Huskies
are. However, if there is a trap game in Week 1, this is it. In the end the scoreboard should indicate a
touchdown or two more for the home team.
UCLA is good
match against Texas A&M even on the road. Regardless of how the rest of the
season goes the Bruins usually open with a strong showing on the road. They don’t
play Oregon this year but this game could be a good substitute. Unless it is
high scoring UCLA should be OK. They have plenty of experience facing fast
paced read option type teams and TAMU is not going to be a finished product
right out of the box. IF the visitors have a quarterback they will pull off an
upset by about 10 points. You CAN get ten points in overtime, right?
UC-Davis and
Northern Arizona vs Oregon and ASU respectively aren’t worth mentioning except for
the fact they are on the schedule. If either PAC12 team loses there is a lot of
‘splainin’ to do.
It won’t be that
easy in Tucson where BYU will be as loaded as they ever are. 16 starters from a
team that went 9-4 last year and a couple former starters returning from injury
will populate their line-up. There’s bound to be a returning missionary or two
worth mentioning on top of that. I don’t see Anu as a QB who can win a shoot-out,
which this might not be if Arizona doesn’t click on offense. Sorry Cat fans,
this one is a loss, possibly a smashing one.
Washington
State is taking the day off so that leaves only one more game to predicticate.
Let’s see … oh yeah … ‘Bama is visiting
USC in a very un-SEC like opening game. Normally before their first tough game
the Tide has rolled over a couple of opponents like Sisters of the Poor or the
School for the Hopeless … both as home
games. Most people would predict USC won’t fare much better but Saban can do less
with more than any other school except USC.
Alabama has the top recruiting class often enough they should win the
national championship nearly every year. They win some but not as often as they
should. The Trojans aren’t far behind in recruiting but have dropped back a way
in winning games or even keeping coaches and AD’s. This may be a turnaround
year.
I explained
why SC’s loss of scholarships problem is the excuse but not the reason for
their records the past few seasons in my last post. They have been a full participation
for a couple of years. Now they have a new AD and a new head coach which are
past due. I look for them to settle down and play much better. We don’t know
how Alabama is going to do with a new quarterback, opening on the road vs a
tough opponent. I’m looking for Troy to pull off the upset,